Big Weekend Ahead: Hail, Flooding Rain, and Accumulating Snow ALL Possible

We're in for quite a weekend. Wind, hail, flooding rain, heavy snow, and lightning are all featured.

Tonight, scattered showers are possible, as a weak warm front moves through the area. Nothing major, just a bit of rain.

What will set up our fun and games is an area of low pressure sliding from the Mid-West through Tennessee, eventually into our area. Ahead of the front itself, a line of thunderstorms will form and rip through the Southeast, causing tornadoes, damaging wind, large hail, vivid and continuous lightning, and heavy, flooding rainfall.

Ahead of our low, showers are still hanging around. A few scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front Saturday afternoon are possible. The previously-mentioned line of storms should make its way through the area sometime Saturday evening. Some storms may be strong to severe, but will be weaker than earlier in the day. After the line of storms moves through, an area of heavy rain will take over. Heavy rain will be an issue during the whole event. Totals of up to 4" of rain are possible across the area, especially the southern areas.

On Sunday, the main area of moisture moves out. Remaining moisture being fed by a trough dipping through the region will provide a kick of energy Sunday morning, providing more rain and thunderstorms. Simultaneously, cold air will plunge south. There are three aspects to this cold. The first is that temperatures will drop throughout the day. Highs should be a few degrees higher than the night's low. In fact, above 3500 FT, temperatures could be below freezing by 4 PM. More on that later in the post. The second aspect is sort of complicated. The cold air lowers the cold levels of the atmosphere. The lower the cold, the easier it is for hail to form. With much of an updraft at all, falling rain will be swept into the cold air, causing it to freeze, and then fall again. The process repeats, thus causing hail. This will need to be monitored. Lastly, with cold air and colder temperatures comes colder precipitation. That's right, snow. Snow could by flying as early as 3 PM above 3500 FT. Everyone above 2000 FT should see accumulating snow. Accumulation, while very early to call, could range from a dusting to six inches PLUS. This will be easier to figure by tomorrow afternoon.

Snow takes over the rain above 2000 FT by Sunday night. With a bit of wrap-around moisture, snow will continue. Eventually, this will turn into an upslope snowfall event. The usual locations could score big again. (If you'll recall to last weekend)

Snow showers last through Monday morning. Accumulation totals are tough to predict at this point.

This low will slide up the coast, bringing the Northeast rain and heavy snow. The low will stall and intensify east of Long Island, NY. (Intensification courtesy of the trough dug through our area) This will bring an up-to 3 day period of heavy snow to the inland Northeast and heavy rain to the coast. (A changeover is possible late) This will be a historic for many. It is already gaining comparison to the 1993 Superstorm, one that has been said to never be rivaled. Well, here comes the possible contender.

4/13/07-7:55 PM