Strong Cold Front to Race Through; Prompts High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories

*A HIGH WIND WARNING is in effect until 7 AM EST Wednesday for the East Tennessee mountains...and until NOON EST Wednesday for Ashe, Avery, Mitchell, Watauga, and Yancey counties in Western North Carolina.*

*A WIND ADVISORY is in effect until until 7 AM EST for East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia...and until NOON EST for Western North Carolina.*

A strong cold front will blast through the region tonight. Ahead of it, a large area of showers and thundershowers has developed...as well as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front (as of 10 PM, a solid block of severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for nearly the entire squall line). Rain is already affecting much of the area. Expect the first batch to mainly be light to moderate rain...with embedded gusty winds. What is of real concern is the cold front and associated line of convect. Extremely strong winds are in place above the surface. With the convection in place, expect these winds to mix down to the surface, producing potentially damaging wind gusts. As the cold front passes, temperatures will quickly drop. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to lower 50s area-wide...with lower 40s in the mountains. Expect temperatures to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s by 7 AM...with middle 20s possible in the mountains.

Tomorrow will remain rather windy, with a stiff wind from the northwest at 10-20 MPH, gusting to 35 MPH at times.

To recap, expect light to moderate rain for much of the evening, with thunderstorms likely as the cold front draws closer (I won't rule out for these storms to be considered "severe"...although I don't believe hail will be a major issue, just damaging winds). As the cold front passes, winds will increase, and temperatures will begin a downward spiral...as much as 15 degrees in an hour. Expect a blustery day tomorrow, with highs possibly not getting out of the 30s area-wide.

Have a great night, and stay safe!

1/29/08-10:05 PM

Ringing in the New Year the Right Way...

In the mountains, anyway.

A relatively strong cold front associated with a trough dropping out of Canada will provide an Arctic blast unseen so far this winter. Along with it, light snow showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday. With the cold air in position and the trough situated in the Eastern US, several shortwaves will pass through between Tuesday and Wednesday evening...resulting in several waves on energy. This, combined with a strong northwesterly (upslope) flow, will result in numerous snow showers for the mountains of East TN and Western NC...as well as for Piedmont locations along the VA/KY border. When all is said and done, several inches of snow are likely across a broad area. High pressure begins to build Thursday as the trough exits...thus ending the snow and bitter cold. And boy is it going to be cold! Valley locations may not hit freezing Wednesday...with those above 2500 FT likely not getting out of the twenties. Some mountainous locales may not get out of the teens! Wind chills will be problematic...as wind increases from the northwest as shortwaves rotate through. Winds from the WNW to NW from 15 to 25 MPH are likely Tuesday and Wednesday across the area...with higher gusts, especially across the mountains.

Total accumulation from this may be quite excessive in some areas. I'll post a snowfall map later tonight.

12/30/07-4:46 PM

Another Rain-, Windmaker Headed Our Way

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1123 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...
MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FEET...FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS FOR THESE WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-290030-
/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0021.071228T2000Z-071229T0400Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...
ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...COKER CREEK
1123 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM EST THIS EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST THIS
EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY
ABOVE 2500 FEET...FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH AND/OR GUSTS OF
40 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...
SO USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-290000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-071229T0500Z/
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...
CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1055 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN
40 AND 50 MPH AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG RIDGETOPS AND MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PUSH WIND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH...AND PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Taking a Crack at the Weekend Storm

I've held off and held off posting my forecast regarding this weekend's storm...simply because until now, I had no clue, nor apparently did many other forecasters. Models have thrown several curve balls, and still may not have this pinned down right.

Early along, this looked like a potential major winter storm...with the low traveling south enough to allow plenty of cold air to filter in. Now, it looks like a moderate rain event, with a couple of possible dry-slot "screwzones," and a decent wrap-around/upslope event to end it.

The latest GFS run looks pretty crappy for QPF...with both showing significant dry-slotting/precipitation breakdown, likely due to early downsloping (KTRI is reporting wind from the SE). The NAM gives the entire area a 1" dousing, with totals up to 2" in W NC. I'm going for more of an areawide total of .5"-1", with isolated totals over an inch...especially across W NC (subject to change...18Z run may paint an entirely different picture).

Right now, it appears as if the precipitation will come in three main waves. The first arrives this afternoon in the form of light to moderate rain showers that have developed over AL and GA...and are currently moving north. The second wave arrives later tonight as the main area of rain currently situated over Western TN, MS, and LA. This is moving east. This is where the majority of the rain should come from. The third, and likely final wave, will come as a wraparound and upslope blend of generally light to moderate rain and snow showers. This should begin late tonight/early Sunday morning, and could last through the day Sunday...depending on how well the flow sets up.

A minor CAD event is occurring over parts of SW VA and W NC. Temperatures are in the middle 30s across the area...and will remain that way today. Tonight they may drop below freezing, especially before the onset of the main wave of rain. With temperatures above the surface above freezing...the potential exists for freezing rain today and tonight...mainly across the higher elevations. Right now, it looks as if ice accumulation will be sketchy...and will likely remain below ice storm criteria (.25"). As the rain moves in and becomes heavier, temperatures will begin to rise, as the rain falling is warmer than the temperature at the surface. This should end any threat of ice with this storm.

As the low pulls north early tomorrow morning, it will rapidly intensify (possibly bombogenesis). This, and the passing of a cold front, will help to pull cold air south. As this occurs, wraparound and upslope precipitation should set up, and create for an interesting day of weather. Rain may change to snow in the morning in the highest elevations, and continue as snow levels drop. All told, much of the area should at least see a bit of snow mixed with rain. Favored upslope spots could see anywhere from 1-5"...with other locations above 2500 feet possibly seeing 1-3".

Wind will be an issue with this system. Gusts in the mountains may reach 60 MPH tomorrow.

This probably sounds quite "rambly," as I have literally just thrown together my thoughts on this system. It's been an irritating one to follow, and will probably do something else abnormal before all is said and done. Bottom line, look for some beneficial rainfall, possibly a bit of snow in the mountains, as well as a bit of ice tonight, and a potentially damaging windstorm tonight and tomorrow.

12/15/07-3:07 PM

Snow Advisory for WNC Mountains

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 PM EST WED DEC 5 2007

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

.A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN..

NCZ033-049-050-061100-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SN.Y.0008.071205T2230Z-071206T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
530 PM EST WED DEC 5 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATELY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF AND PARE BACK TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN
INCH...WITH LOCAL TWO INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
LINE...AND NEARLY THREE INCHES AT THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.